The net profit is expected to be in a broad range of Rs 19,576 crore to Rs 16,530 crore according to estimates given by 5 brokerages. In this four brokerages have estimated a flat-to-15% year-on-year growth while one expects a 3% decline.
NII estimates range between Rs 40,520 crore and Rs 42,592 crore and NIMs are seen falling to 2.86%-2.9%, down 13-35 bps QoQ.
The estimates of Emkay Research, IIFL Capital, Nomura, Nuvama Institutional Equities and Prabhudas Lilladher Capital (PL Capital) have been taken into consideration. Here’s what they are pegging on the following XX metrics:
1) PAT
— Emkay estimates PAT at Rs 18,128 crore, up 6.4% YoY and down 2.8% QoQ.
— IIFL expects PAT to decline 3% YoY and 11% QoQ to Rs 16,530 crore.
— Nomura pegs PAT at Rs 17,000 crore, flat YoY but down 9% QoQ.
— Nuvama estimates PAT at Rs 17,180 crore, up just 0.8% YoY and down 7.9% QoQ.
— Prabhudas Lilladher is the most bullish, projecting PAT at Rs 19,576 crore, up 14.9% YoY and 5% QoQ.Most brokerages see sequential decline in PAT, driven by lower NII and higher provisions. However, YoY growth stays mildly positive for most due to a low base and controlled credit costs.
2) NII & NIMs
NII
– Emkay Research: Rs 42,313 crore, up 2.9% YoY and down 1.1% QoQ
– IIFL Capital: Rs 41,880 crore, up 2% YoY and down 2% QoQ
– Nomura: Rs 40,520 crore, down 1% YoY and down 5% QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 41,060 crore, down 0.2% YoY and down 4% QoQ
– PL Capital: Rs 42,592 crore, up 3.6% YoY and down 0.4% QoQ
NIMs
– Nomura: 2.9%, down 35 bps YoY and down 13 bps QoQ
– Nuvama: 2.87%, down 35 bps YoY and down 13 bps QoQ
– PL Capital: 2.86%, down 19 bps YoY and down 2bps QoQ
Nomura and Nuvama project sharper declines in NIMs due to pressure on yield and higher funding costs.
PL Capital sees relatively modest compression of 2 bps QoQ.
All brokerages agree NIM compression is a key concern, with sustained cost pressures and muted credit growth contributing to narrowing spreads.
3) Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP)
– Emkay Research: Rs 27,736 crore, up 4.9% YoY and down 11.3% QoQ
– IIFL Capital: Rs 27,230 crore, up 3% YoY and down 13% QoQ
– Nomura: Rs 20,390 crore, down 11% YoY and down 7% QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 26,780 crore, up 1.3% YoY and down 14.4% QoQ
— PL Capital: Rs 30,093 crore, up 13.8% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ
While YoY growth remains steady for most, QoQ decline is broad-based due to seasonality and revenue pressures. PL Capital expects the strongest operational performance.
4) Asset Quality
Nomura sees provisions at Rs 5,170 crore while IIFL at Rs 5,200 crore, rising 50% YoY but declining sequentially.
Nuvama projects slippages at Rs 8,000 crore, down 8% YoY and up 85% QoQ.
PL Capital expects GNPA/NNPA at 1.88%/0.48%, respectively, slightly higher than Q4FY25.
5) Loans & deposits
Loan growth projected around 10-12% YoY, but flat to slightly up QoQ:
– Nomura: Rs 41.2 lakh crore (+10% YoY, -1% QoQ)
– Nuvama: Rs 41.9 lakh crore (+11.8% YoY, +0.7% QoQ)
– PL Capital: Rs 42 lakh crore (+12.2% YoY, +1% QoQ)
Deposit growth between 8.7% and 11% YoY.
Nomura: Rs 54.36 lakh crore, up 11% YoY and up 1% QoQ
Nuvama: Rs 53.28 lakh crore, up 8.7% YoY and down 1% QoQ
6) Credit cost
— Nomura: 0.5% (+13 bps YoY, -14 bps QoQ)
— Nuvama: 0.38% (+1 bps YoY, -24 bps QoQ)
— PL Capital: 0.43% (+6 bps YoY, -19 bps QoQ)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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